Someone Must Capitalize
Following North Korea’s decision in April to leave the six-party negotiations, tensions immediately mounted in the Pacific. In May, North Korea defiantely conducted a second nuclear test (as well as testing long range missiles over Japan). Yet after a couple months of uncertainty, the Korean peninsula seemed to begin the long process of dissolving tensions.
There have been significant steps in the right direction. Following the death of South Korea’s former prime minister, leaders and families from both countries joined together in mourning. Familial connections have continued to occur since then between “long-lost” siblings from the Korean war. On top of this, North Korea and Kim Jong Il have been increasingly less provocatory over the past few months.
These slight relaxations have been attributed to various things: Kim Jong Il’s age and the question of succession, the influence of Bill Clinton’s humanitarian visit to free the American journalists, a more open, yet still rigid policy of relations with the Obama administration, increasing pressure from regional superpowers China and Russia, etc. The more important issue is how the world will react to these relaxations. Make no mistake – there will soon be (or perhaps already is) a grand opportunity for the world to take a step towards global de-nuclearization by removing the most unstable (developed) nuclear program in the world. Someone, or many nations, must step up and capitalize.
In an honest assessment, the U.S. is not the most apt to undertake this task. President Obama has far too much already on his plate (including attempting to remove another possible nuclear threat), and the possibilty of another failure would put too much of his legitimacy on the line. Far more able to navigate this opportunity is China or possibly Russia. China, North Korea’s largest economic (and emotional) ally, has an enormous amount of influence to exert over their small neighbour. With either the compliance or assistance of Russia, the two could easily convince North Korea it is in their best interest to de-nuclearize.
How? Follow through on previous promises. It is here that the U.S. could play a significant role and claim a part in the success. An agreement with North Korea could be reached if each side commits to two things. North Korea must: 1) Disband their nuclear program. This is non-negotiable. 2) Reduce the size of their standing military. The Korean peninsula will not reach a stable point until there is a successful reduction of the number of troops lining the demilitarized zone.
China and the U.S. also must follow through by 1) guaranteeing the political succession of Kim Jong Il’s family and reducing (if not removing) the number of U.S. troops in South Korea. Not only would this increase the number of American resources for Afghanistan but it would help reduce Il’s concerns about a U.S. attack. 2) Another pledge to help North Korea build a light-water reactor could only help the situation. After failing to follow through on this idea in previous negotiations, realizing that the world has accepted North Korea as a (nuclear-free) state that is worthy of assistance would greatly affect Kim Jong Il’s mentality and aggression.
Obviously this is no simple task, but the time is at hand to begin acting. If the cards are played correctly, North Korea could be nuclear free within the next couple years. China would have yet another economic partner, Obama would be able to claim a very substantive victory, and the world would have taken a large step towards becoming a much safer place.
Locke
